Good Analysis on Afghanistan from Stratfor

My inner geek quite enjoys Stratfor, which is a (paid) “Global Intelligence” service – kind of like a free-market CIA I guess.

They’ve just mad freely available an analysis of the Afghanistan situation which is well worth a read to understand some of the complexity and depth that is involved. To whet your appetite, here’s what made me go “Ohhh”:

  • Of course the Obama administration had an internal debate about Afghanistan tactics, they’re meant to.
  • “Generals must think about how to win the war they are fighting. Presidents must think about whether the war is worth fighting.”
  • The Taliban like any Guerilla force have a built in advantage, they pretty much just have to wait for us to go home and they win but that’s OK because the US has shown it has the stomach to stay in the fight where it’s strategic interests say to do so.
  • But remember, we got into Afghanistan to route out Al Qaeda – and Al Qaeda are playing the Guerilla game on a global basis.
  • Obama probably can’t withdraw because he’s a Democrat and people would accuse him of being too soft.
  • But what he can do is get the Pakistanis to take a more active role in the war, because it is very much in their interests to do so.